Here's the evolution of the probability of unprovoked defection, when I reduce the level of mutation allowed to 3% instead of 5%. The spikes are certainly much less prominent and their onset is less abrupt. There is another factor that I am not controlling very carefully - the fraction of strategies that is eliminated in each generation. What I am currently doing is just taking the midpoint between the highest score and the lowest score. The strategies that score below the midpoint are eliminated. Sometimes that might eliminated 40% of the strategies, sometimes 60%. I need to control that fraction more carefully, and to investigate how the pattern of evolution varies and the fraction changes.
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